Intelligence Warnings Dismissed
Multiple investigations have revealed that Israeli intelligence had detailed warnings about the attack—some describing the exact plan Hamas would execute—but these were systematically dismissed by leadership.
The "Jericho Wall" Document
Hamas Attack Blueprint Obtained—and Ignored
According to The New York Times and Times of Israel, Israeli intelligence obtained a 40-page document detailing virtually the exact attack plan Hamas would execute—more than a year before October 7.
- The document described an initial rocket barrage
- Efforts to knock out surveillance systems
- Waves of gunmen crossing by land and air
- The document circulated among military and intelligence leaders
Warnings to Netanyahu
The Military Intelligence Directorate issued no fewer than four separate warnings to Netanyahu between March and July 2023.
Shin Bet Chief's Warning: "War is Coming"
In July 2023, Shin Bet head Ronen Bar explicitly warned Netanyahu that "war is coming," based on his assessment that the "axis of resistance" perceived Israel as weaker due to internal rifts over Netanyahu's judicial reforms.
Netanyahu rejected these warnings both in private and public. In an April 2023 interview, when asked directly about security warnings, Netanyahu responded by saying they were "exaggerated."
Junior Analysts Ignored
In July 2023, a member of the Israeli signals intelligence unit alerted her superiors that Hamas was conducting attack preparations, stating:
"I utterly refute that the scenario is imaginary."
— Israeli Intelligence Analyst, July 2023
An Israeli colonel ignored her concerns. Multiple junior analysts and border sentries raised alarms on numerous occasions. Their warnings were systematically ignored.
Final Hours: Five Warning Signs Missed
The IDF identified five signs of unusual Hamas activity the night before the attack but determined they did not indicate an imminent threat.
Netanyahu's Office: Alert Not Passed On
Netanyahu's office admitted that the PM's intelligence officer received an IDF memo detailing suspicious Hamas activity three hours before the attack—and didn't pass it on to Netanyahu. The office argued this was justified given the document's "non-urgent framing."
Sources: Times of Israel - Alert Not Passed |
Times of Israel - Five Warning Signs |
War on the Rocks |
NPR - Shin Bet